Walmart (WMT) Earnings Preview: New CEO, New Strategy?

Walmart (WMT) is the biggest name reporting earnings this week, due Thursday morning before the bell. Zacks expects it to post 4Q26 earnings per share of $0.73 on revenue of $190.11 billion, up 11% and 5% vs last year respectively.

The company recently hit a $1T market cap, perhaps reflecting its status as a tech company. It might feel strange to think about the big-box supergiant this way, but it has made deep investments in technology after the last few years as it sought to compete with Amazon (AMZN). They’ve paid off: rival Target (TGT) was left in the dust.

Pivoting to e-commerce, delivery, and advertising, along with allowing third parties to sell on their platform, have made Walmart a stealth rival to Amazon – and it knows how to run brick-and-mortar stores, unlike the latter. It has more room to expand in the digital space, especially with ad opportunities and AI shopping.

In 2025, they saw total U.S. growth of 4.8%, including fuel sales, while operating margins climbed slightly to 4.4%. The U.S. saw strong grocery and health & wellness sales, with Walmart noting growth in the average ticket. Sam’s Club was similarly strong, reporting 2025 comparable sales of 4.7%. International also saw growth, with revenue up 6.3% year-over-year.

We’ll be getting holiday numbers from this quarter; many retailers saw a record season in 2025, with Adobe Analytics estimating that e-commerce sales alone topped $257 billion. Walmart has diversified its offerings to appeal to multiple strata of income, potentially putting it in a good position to scoop up a chunk of that total.

Of course, investors will be watching the forward guidance – and may be watching more carefully than usual, because a new CEO, John Furner, took office on February 1. Furner was previously the head of the U.S. division, and his LinkedIn bio states that he began his Walmart career in 1993 as an hourly associate. Clearly, this is a man that knows Walmart well. Does he have his own vision for where it goes next, or will he follow the path laid out?

Walmart’s seen a strong run lately, even as more straightforwardly tech companies have taken a beating. Its stock is up over 15% year-to-date, and almost 24% year-over-year before today’s open. The options market anticipates a +/- $6.50 move, or around 5%. 

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