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Yields spiked to multi-year highs before retreating in the weak that was, and the impact on markets was complicated by questions about AI revenue and oil price uncertainty.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed above 5.25%, the highest level since 2002, and ended the week near 5.244%. The 30-year Treasury yield also hit a multi-year high. For the week, equity returns were mostly higher: the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.15%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was up 0.93%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) was up 0.24%. But the Russell 2000 (RUT) was down 0.91% for the week.
Here are some of this past week's Schwab Network interviews and discussions on energy investing, interest rates, and artificial intelligence, featuring perspectives for traders and investors.
Tensions between Iran-backed rebels and Saudi Arabia escalated during the week. Thursday, fears about energy inflation accelerated before President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections, and that negotiations continue, according to The Wall Street Journal and other media reports. The U.S. benchmark price for crude oil (/CL) spiked above $93 per barrel Thursday but retreated and was little changed on the week at near $91 per barrel. For more on energy discussions last week, see:
- Ninepoint Co-CEO on Building an Energy Independence ETF | The Watch List
- Crude Oil's Lasting Strength & Impacts to Fed Interest Rate Expectations
- Three Ways to Think About the Nuclear Power Boom
Interest rates remained in focus, with the CME FedWatch tool on Friday showing a roughly 70% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Dec. 9 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and only a 17% probability for the Oct. 28 meeting. Minutes released Wednesday from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting reflect concern about the impact of higher energy prices globally and domestically, especially for low- and moderate-income households. Here are excerpts from the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC minutes on energy, the AI buildout, and inflation:
“... Many participants cited their business contacts and business surveys as reporting increased cost pressures ... Many participants assessed that the longer energy prices remained elevated, the greater the risk that cost increases in certain sectors could lead to broader price pressures. Some participants commented that the AI buildout could cause aggregate demand to outpace aggregate supply over the medium term, putting upward pressure on inflation. Several participants noted that the possibility of further tariff increases was also an upside risk to inflation. Some participants expressed concerns that, after more than five years of inflation above 2 percent, elevated inflation rates could begin to affect inflation expectations and wage- and price-setting decisions ...”
For discussions on the Fed, and interest rates, see:
- Frances Newton on Treasury Yields' 'Shock to the System,' Fed's Reaction to Volatility
- How Midterm Elections Shape AI Trade, Rates & Treasury Yields
- The Schwab Network Fed Watch landing page
For discussions on technology and artificial intelligence spending, see:
U.S. stocks moved higher Friday as technology shares rebounded from Thursday’s AI-driven selloff.
The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 0.59%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (/NDX) rose 0.51%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) advanced 0.83%, while the Russell 2000 (RUT) was up 0.46%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remained subdued under 15, signaling relatively calm equity-market conditions despite this week’s swings. Technology and chip shares attempted to recover after Thursday’s sharp losses, though the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed 0.41% lower.
Oil prices ended Friday roughly flat near $91.40. Treasury yields remained elevated and fresh consumer-sentiment data showed households increasingly worried about prices. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.244%, not far from its highest level in roughly 24 years. Consumer sentiment provided a less encouraging economic signal. The University of Michigan’s preliminary October sentiment index dropped to 46.3 from 48.1 in September, below expectations, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.7% and five-year expectations rose to 3.5%. See Oil, Bond Yields, OpenAI Revenue Questions Hit Tech Trade
Three things to watch from Friday’s market action:
Telecoms Tumble, Cell Tower Stocks Climb on SpaceX Deal
Shares of T-Mobile (TMUS), AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) sank 13.3%, 9.8%, and 8.8% respectively after Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) agreed to pay roughly $8 billion to acquire nationwide low-band spectrum for Starlink Mobile, according to reports. The 800 MHz spectrum could eventually allow SpaceX to combine satellite and terrestrial networks, potentially making it a more direct competitor to traditional wireless carriers. Shares of three of the largest U.S. phone tower operators moved higher Friday, including American Tower Corp. (AMT), up 9.3%, Crown Castle International Corp (CCI), up 15.6% and SBA Communications Corp (SBAC), up 7.3%. SpaceX shares were 1.3% Friday. See SPCX Low-Band Spectrum License Expands Mobile Opportunities; VZ, T & TMUS Plunge
Humana Surges on Medicare Ratings
Humana (HUM) jumped 10.6% after reporting that 95% of its Medicare Advantage members will be enrolled in plans rated four stars or higher in 2027, up sharply from 20% in 2026. Higher star ratings can translate into increased government bonus payments and improved enrollment economics. See Friday's First Moves: CRWD & ZS Price Target Hikes, HUM Upgrade
Delta Cites Fuel Costs in Earnings Miss
Shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed flat after the carrier posted EPS of $1.72, missing expectations of $1.81. Delta reported GAAP revenue of $20.19 billion and adjusted revenue of $17.59 billion, against estimates of $17.65 billion, according to reports. The company also lowered its full-year adjusted EPS guidance between $5.10 to $5.60 from $6.50 to $7.50. It cited the impact of surging jet fuel costs on profitability. See DAL’s Earnings Miss Masks a Bigger Shift in the Airline Industry
