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Whiplash! Week in Review: AI Optimism Meets Inflation, Oil, and Geopolitical Anxiety

Major indices changed course in a meaningful way this past week, ending in the green despite significant initial volatility.

For the week, the S&P 500 and the Dow each rose fractionally, and the Nasdaq-100 gained more than 2%. Headline whiplash about developments in the war between the U.S. and Iran ended with hope that an agreement is in the offing. The price for U.S. benchmark crude oil sank roughly 7% on the week to two-month lows near $84 per barrel.

The SpaceX (SPCX) initial public offering Friday, with a $135 offering price and $150 opening trade, will go down as the largest IPO ever and is a strong indication of market optimism about new growth frontiers. The week also showed there is no stopping the artificial intelligence growth narrative. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) spiked more than 9% over the last five trading days.

Inflation will be a theme next week, with geopolitical tension and oil price trends defining conversations as the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday. Listen to guests talk about four big topics in the week that was:

On Energy Shocks and Geopolitics

Even with the Strait of Hormuz open, it could take some time to bring oil reserves back to pre-war levels.

Mercogliano: 'Peace in Middle East' Won't Solve Long-Term Energy Headwinds: Sal Mercogliano, Maritime Historian at Campbell University, in conversation with Marley Kayden.
How U.S. Economy Will Stomach Energy Prices as Fed Grapples with Inflation: Mabrouk Chetouane, Head of Global Market Strategy at Natixis Investment Managers, in conversation with Tom White.
Wavering Iran Tensions & Impacts on Crude Oil, Interest Rates: John Deal, Managing Director, Capital Markets, at The Post Oak Group, and Melissa Armo, in conversation with Marley Kayden.

On The Federal Reserve, Inflation and the Fragility of Market Confidence

Last week, the consumer price index (CPI) for May showed an increase of 0.5% month over month and 4.2% year over year. The producer price index (PPI) was up 1.1% month over month and 6.5% year over year, the highest levels since 2022. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points Thursday.

Sticky Inflation Complicates Fed Outlook as CPI Hits 4.2% Ken Kim, Senior Economist at KPMG, and Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior U.S. Economist for the Conference Board, in conversation with Diane King Hall.
No Rush to Cut: Fed's Fight with Inflation & Jobs Data: Mark Vitner, Chief Economist at Piedmont Crescent Capital, in conversation with Sam Vadas.
Inflation Crosscurrents: Oil, Wages, and What the Fed Watches Next: Jeffrey Klingelhofer, a portfolio manager and senior research analyst focused on securitized assets at Aristotle Funds, in conversation with Sam Vadas.

On AI Infrastructure, the Semiconductor Supercycle and Testing Mega-cap Tech Leadership

On demand for chips, memory, servers, data centers, cloud capacity and more:

Micron (MU) Starting AI Memory 'Supercycle?' Outlining Risk in Supply & Demand: Matt Bryson, Managing Director of Semiconductor and Hardware Research at Wedbush, and Zed Francis, CIO and Cofounder of Convexitas, in conversation with Diane King Hall.
AI Semiconductor Boom: SOXL, Micron (MU), and Early-Stage Growth, Ryan Lee, Senior Vice President at Direxion, in conversation with Diane King Hall.
Oracle (ORCL) Earnings: Stock Pressured for AI Debt Financing News, plus an ORCL Options Trade: Sam Vadas speaking with Marley Kayden about the Street’s view of Oracle, and Sam in conversation with Joe Tigay, portfolio manager at the Rational Equity Armor Investments.
Apple (AAPL) Siri AI Updates, Google (GOOGL) & Microsoft (MSFT) Expectations: Daniel Rubino, editor in chief at Windows Central, in conversation with Marley Kayden

On Fund Flows and Investing Trends: Are the SpaceX IPO, and OpenAI IPO Plans a Test of Public Markets?

AI IPO Boom: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Surging Investor Demand: Isabelle Freidheim, founder and managing partner of Athena Capital, in conversation with Sam Vadas.
The story exchange-traded fund flows are telling now and Ways to Defend Portfolios Against Volatility, from Kevin Rich, COO and CCO at WEBs Investments, in conversation with Diane King Hall.

Dimitra DeFotis

13 Jun 20264 min read

Closing Bell: Historic SpaceX IPO and Easing Crude Lift Markets

The record-breaking public market debut from Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) capped a tumultuous but positive week for markets.

The S&P 500 edged higher by 0.50% to close at 7431.46, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.31% to 25,888.84, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.70% to finish at 51,202.26.

Risk appetite across broader equity markets was further supported by a sharp drop in oil prices, with headlines indicating a potential U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures traded back below $85 per barrel. All S&P sectors besides healthcare traded higher into the close, while technology and growth-sensitive communication segments absorbed localized profit-taking.

Three things to watch from today’s market:

SpaceX Dominates Capital Flows in Record-Setting Nasdaq Debut: Space Exploration Technologies made financial history on Friday, launching its long-awaited initial public offering. The stock opened at $150—surpassing its $135 pricing floor—before surging on massive institutional volume to close at $160.95, driving the company's valuation past the $2 trillion mark.
Diplomatic Breakthrough Deflates Crude Risk Premium: Oil and its derivatives experienced a swift unwind on reports that Washington and Tehran are advancing a peace framework. Institutional traders quickly priced in a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While the underlying physical commodity dropped, oil-related equities managed to post modest daily gains.
Consumer Sentiment Rebounds as Near-Term Inflation Expectations Ease: Domestic economic data provided an unexpected psychological lift to the closing session. The University of Michigan preliminary June Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 48.9, a bounce from the May historic low of 44.8, and a comfortable jump above the consensus estimate of 46.0. The improvement was most pronounced among lower-income demographics, tracking with an early-month cooling in retail fuel prices. Critically, year-ahead inflation expectations moderated to 4.6% (down from 4.8% in May), while five-year inflation expectations retreated to 3.4% from last month's 3.9% peak.