Jay Hatfield’s 2026 Thesis: 8,000 SPX, 3 Rate Cuts, 10-Year Below 4%

Jay Hatfield thinks the fallout from the Japanese bond market will reverse and is targeting 8,000 on the SPX by year end. He anticipates lower inflation and the 10-year falling below 4%, along with 3 rate cuts. Jay is not worried about international bond holders dumping their holdings, arguing that other people will simply buy it. He contrasts the GDP vs GDI reports and why traders might use the latter.

Market On Close

23 Jan 2026

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