“The high-end consumer’s going to drive the spend this holiday,” says Charlie O’Shea, citing anecdotal evidence of long lines even in the cold. The question is what will happen on the lower end, he adds. He covers the “arms race” of Amazon (AMZN) free shipping and its avoidance of brick-and-mortar vs Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST). He thinks Target (TGT) is doing a good job despite “bumps in the road.”