Justin Bergner sees midterm elections as a clearing event but warns that rising rates, declining real wages, and a stretched consumer create more downside risk than upside. He is skeptical that AI CapEx productivity gains can fully offset consumer weakness and is modestly defensively positioned. He likes Ferguson (FERG) and Genuine Parts (GPC) in industrials, Fifth Third (FITB) in financials, and Smucker's (SJM) as a discounted defensive play.