Jim Paulsen warns that the economy and stock market are dangerously bifurcated, with AI and "new era" spending surging while the rest of the economy barely grows. He says tech complacency is the biggest risk right now after the longest tech boom in 100 years, and financial conditions have tightened sharply with the 10-year yield surging from 3.94% to 5.3%. He expects a pretty good correction over the next six months rather than a bear market, and recommends reallocating from new era stocks into defensive sectors and lifting bond weightings.