Week in Review: Fed Minutes Flag Energy Inflation and AI Risk

PUBLISHED 10 Oct 2026 | 3 min read

Dimitra DeFotis

Senior Editor

Yields spiked to multi-year highs before retreating in the weak that was, and the impact on markets was complicated by questions about AI revenue and oil price uncertainty.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed above 5.25%, the highest level since 2002, and ended the week near 5.244%. The 30-year Treasury yield also hit a multi-year high. For the week, equity returns were mostly higher: the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.15%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was up 0.93%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) was up 0.24%. But the Russell 2000 (RUT) was down 0.91% for the week.

Here are some of this past week's Schwab Network interviews and discussions on energy investing, interest rates, and artificial intelligence, featuring perspectives for traders and investors.

Tensions between Iran-backed rebels and Saudi Arabia escalated during the week. Thursday, fears about energy inflation accelerated before President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections, and that negotiations continue, according to The Wall Street Journal and other media reports. The U.S. benchmark price for crude oil (/CL) spiked above $93 per barrel Thursday but retreated and was little changed on the week at near $91 per barrel. For more on energy discussions last week, see:

Interest rates remained in focus, with the CME FedWatch tool on Friday showing a roughly 70% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Dec. 9 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and only a 17% probability for the Oct. 28 meeting. Minutes released Wednesday from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting reflect concern about the impact of higher energy prices globally and domestically, especially for low- and moderate-income households. Here are excerpts from the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC minutes on energy, the AI buildout, and inflation:

“... Many participants cited their business contacts and business surveys as reporting increased cost pressures ... Many participants assessed that the longer energy prices remained elevated, the greater the risk that cost increases in certain sectors could lead to broader price pressures. Some participants commented that the AI buildout could cause aggregate demand to outpace aggregate supply over the medium term, putting upward pressure on inflation. Several participants noted that the possibility of further tariff increases was also an upside risk to inflation. Some participants expressed concerns that, after more than five years of inflation above 2 percent, elevated inflation rates could begin to affect inflation expectations and wage- and price-setting decisions ...”

For discussions on the Fed, and interest rates, see:

Frances Newton on Treasury Yields' 'Shock to the System,' Fed's Reaction to Volatility
How Midterm Elections Shape AI Trade, Rates & Treasury Yields
The Schwab Network Fed Watch landing page

For discussions on technology and artificial intelligence spending, see:

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Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.