
Morning Watchlist: Trade Deal Updates & CPI
U.S. stock futures are slightly lower ahead of the Wall Street open after the Trump administration’s trade talks with China ended with an agreement on a framework to revive the flow of sensitive goods. The agreement still must get approvals from President Trump and China’s Xi while little clarity was given.
Investor focus will be on more details on the meetings along with May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Headline inflation is expected up 0.2% on month and 2.5% on year in May versus a rise of 0.2% and an increase of 2.3% on year in April. Core CPI is seen up 0.3% and 2.9% in May.
Snapshot (as of 7 AM ET)
- Oil (/CL) – Oil prices are up over 1% near $66 a barrel. Markets are still weighing the framework trade agreement between the U.S. and China. There is once again a lack of detail, but for now the agreement has helped to bolster demand expectations. At the same time, conflicting signals on U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have weighed on supply forecasts. API data showed that U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly fell last week, while the EIA projected that inventories will increase by an average of 0.8 million barrels per day through 2025, 0.4 million bpd more than predicted last month.
- Gold (/GC) – Gold prices are up 0.3% near $3350 as uncertainty surrounding the finalization of a U.S.-China trade agreement weighed on sentiment and fueled some safe-haven buying, with investors awaiting key U.S. inflation data for further market direction.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) – The Crypto Future is slightly lower near 109.7K in the premarket.
- VIX – The CBOE Volatility Index was down 1.2% on Tuesday and settled at 16.95 as stocks were higher.
- U.S. Dollar (/DX) – The dollar is flat around 99.1.
Biggest Premarket Movers (Mark % Change as of 7 AM ET)
- Constellation Energy (CEG): +3.24%
- Vistra (VST): +2.49%
- Tesla (TSLA): +1.99%
- Nucor (NUE): -3.43%
- Lockheed Martin (LMT): -2.50%
- Brown & Brown (BRO): -1.64%
Economic Data
- 7:00AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 8:30AM ET: CPI
- 10:30AM ET: Oil Inventories
- 1:00PM ET: 10-Year Note Auction
- 2:00PM ET: Treasury Statement
Notable Earnings
- Premarket: CHWY, CGNT, SAIL, VSCO
- Postmarket: ORCL, OXM
- Premarket Tomorrow: LOVE
- Postmarket Tomorrow: ADBE, RH
Upgrades/Downgrades
- Jefferies upgrades J.M. Smucker (SJM) to Buy from Hold
- Jefferies upgrades First Solar (FSLR) to Buy from Hold
- Baird upgrades Urban Outfitters (URBN) to Outperform from Neutral
- BNP Paribas Exane downgrades Arista Networks (ANET) to Neutral from Outperform
- Baird downgrades UnitedHealth (UNH) to Neutral from Outperform
- Arete downgrades Etsy (ETSY) to Sell from Neutral