Markets Take a Breather Ahead of Iran Ceasefire Meeting

U.S. stock futures are modestly lower ahead of the Wall Street open after a massive rally on Wednesday following President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks. The “double sided” ceasefire, however, was contingent on Iran agreeing to reopening the strait for the next two weeks.

But late Wednesday, Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the U.S. of already violating the ceasefire agreement. The violations are Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon, a drone’s entry into Iranian airspace and the denial of the Islamic Republic’s right to enrich uranium, he said.

Oil prices are reversing higher this morning after its biggest slide in six years on Wednesday after the ceasefire announcement. Investor focus remains on headline news out of the Middle East along with economic data, including Jobless Claims and the delayed reading of the personal consumption expenditure price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measurement of inflation.

Snapshot (as of 7 AM ET)

• Oil (/CL) – Oil prices are up 5% near $99 a barrel this morning after Iran accused the U.S of violating elements of a two-week ceasefire agreement, raising concerns that tensions could escalate again and disrupt energy supplies. The moves come a day after U.S. crude oil posted its biggest single-day drop since 2020.
• Gold (/GC) – Gold futures are down 0.2% near $4760 after hitting nearly a three-week peak on Wednesday, as the U.S. dollar and oil prices fell after Washington and Tehran agreed to a two-week truce in their war, calming inflation worries.
• Bitcoin (/BTC) – The Crypto Future is relatively flat near 71,500 in premarket trading.
• VIX – The CBOE Volatility Index was down 18.4% on Wednesday and settled at 21.04 as stocks rallied sharply. It was the lowest closing price for the VIX in six weeks. The VIX is up 0.86% ahead of the open as stocks are modestly lower.
• U.S. Dollar (/DX) – The dollar is down slightly over 0.20% at around 98.93.

Biggest Premarket Movers (as of 7 AM ET)

1. CoreWeave (CRWV): +7.62%
2. Datadog (DDOG): +2.40%
3. APA Corp (APA): +1.60%
4. Amazon (AMZN): +1.45%
5. SanDisk (SNDK): +1.45%

1. Intel (INTC): -2.02%
2. Norwegian Cruise (NCLH): -1.84%
3. Royal Caribbean Group (RCL): -1.53%
4. United Airlines (UAL): -1.25%
5. Carnival Corp (CCL): -1.21%

Economic Data

• 8:30 AM ET: GDP – Final Q4 Delayed, Jobless Claims, Personal Income/Outlays – Delayed , PCE Price Index
• 10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories
• 10:30 AM ET: Natural Gas Inventories
• 1:00 PM ET: 30-Year Bond Auction

Notable Earnings

• Premarket: BB, NEOG, SMPL
• Postmarket: N/A
• Premarket Tomorrow: N/A
• Postmarket Tomorrow: N/A

Upgrades/Downgrades

• Barclays upgrades Marvell (MRVL) to Overweight from Equal Weight
• Stifel upgrades Texas Instruments (TXN) to Buy from Hold
• Guggenheim upgrades Datadog (DDOG) to Buy from Neutral
• BTIG downgrades Zscaler (ZS) to Neutral from Buy
• Guggenheim downgrades GitLab (GTLB) to Neutral from Buy
• Compass Point downgrades Circle Internet (CRCL) to Sell from Neutral

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