Market Minute: Boeing (BA) – Turbulence Continues

Boeing (BA) stock has bounced back 56% from April’s tariff-induced lows and is up nearly 14% this year as of Monday’s close. 

The stock has pulled back from last week’s 1.5-year highs, which were driven by a surge in orders and optimism about operational improvements under CEO Kelly Ortberg, who assumed leadership in August 2024, following the fatal crash of an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner on June 12, 2025, which killed 241 of 242 people onboard. Boeing shares fell 3.8% on June 13, reflecting investor concerns about renewed safety scrutiny and potential order delays. 

The Paris Air Show, held biennially at Le Bourget Airport, is the world’s premier aerospace trade event, drawing industry giants, investors, and aviation enthusiasts to witness cutting-edge innovations, major order announcements, and strategic partnerships. Running from June 16 to 22, it presents a critical opportunity to showcase its commercial and defense portfolios, restore investor confidence, and secure new orders in a competitive and volatile market. 

However, recent events, including the tragic Air India Boeing 787 crash and geopolitical tensions, are diluting Boeing’s prospects, influencing its stock outlook and strategic approach at the show. Boeing has outlined an ambitious yet cautious approach for the 2025 Paris Air Show, emphasizing innovation, partnerships, and a commitment to safety and quality. CEO Kelly Ortberg, who canceled his attendance to focus on the Air India crash investigation, underscored the company’s efforts to “restore trust and move Boeing forward.”

The Paris Air Show is renowned for major aircraft order announcements, and Boeing enters with a strong backlog of 5,943 aircraft as of May 2025, including 606 net orders year-to-date. In May, Boeing booked 303 gross orders, the highest since December 2023, driven by deals like Qatar Airways’ massive order for 157 787 Dreamliners and 777X jets. Analysts predict around 800 total orders at the show, with Boeing expected to secure significant commitments, though likely trailing its competitor Airbus (EADSY) due to its more cautious approach following the Air India crash.

Boeing’s recently released 20-year forecast projects a 40% increase in global air travel by 2030, driving demand for 43,600 new jets through 2044, with emerging markets like China and South Asia accounting for half the growth. This aligns with Boeing’s strength in narrowbody and widebody segments. 

One area that Boeing needs to address in production. The aerospace giant said last Tuesday that it had produced 38 737 Max jets in May, a number it had been trying to hit for well over a year. The company aims to maintain current production levels for a few more months before requesting that the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration lift a production cap, which has limited Boeing to producing not more than 38 of the best-selling jets per month.

Investor focus for Boeing this week will be headlines on any additional aircraft orders along with clarity on the Air India crash investigation. The stock may to continue to be headline driven with the potential for outsized moves. The option market is predicting a one day move of +/- $4.40 and a nearly $7 move for the week as near-term volatility is elevated.