Alphabet (GOOGL) Breakup Potential

An Alphabet (GOOGL) breakup is looking more likely all the time. 

On August 4, a U.S. judge ruled that Google had illegally exploited its Search dominance. Judge Amit Mehta wrote in the ruling, “Google is a monopolist, and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly,” citing its 89.2% share of general search and 94.9% share on mobile.

Justice Department lawyers argued Google used its lead position to thwart competition and run up prices for advertisers, while also not improving the quality of its engine, hurting consumers. However, Mehta also acknowledged that “Google is widely recognized as the best available in the United States.” 

Kent Walker, Google’s president of global affairs, said the company intends to appeal Mehta’s findings, noting: “This decision recognizes that Google offers the best search engine, but concludes that we shouldn’t be allowed to make it easily available.”

While Judge Mehta has not yet mandated how Google must remedy the situation, many in the market expect it may have to spin off its Search unit – and there are some waiting eager on the sidelines. 

The Wall Street Journal reports that Perplexity, an AI startup, submitted a bid to buy Chrome for $34.5 billion. The staggering price is almost twice what Perplexity was last valued at, and while it reportedly has deep venture capital pockets to use, that would still put a potential new company under serious debt.

Other AI companies may not let a bid go uncontested: an RBC capital analyst thinks OpenAI would pay “significantly more” for Chrome at auction. The analyst argues that the browser would be “critical” to the distribution of GenAI products, so whichever team could seize the keys would have massive “value unlock.”

Further, an Australian federal judge ruled that Apple (AAPL) and Google engaged in anti-competitive conduct with their app stores. The case was initiated by Epic Games, the maker of Fortnite, who challenged Apple and Google's app store policies after being removed for attempting to bypass their payment systems. Apple and Google have released statements expressing disagreement with some aspects of the ruling, while also acknowledging the court's decision. However, the ruling opens the door to ongoing class action suits in Australia from consumers and developers alike, alleging inflated prices on both sides.

If this ruling forces both companies to tear down their walled gardens – allowing new app stores or direct downloads – they could lose another chunk of revenue. An app store spinoff is possible, but perhaps less likely: it’s a smaller source of revenue.

Google Search is the biggest source of Alphabet’s income, making up over 50% of its income for the last several years. Without it, Alphabet’s biggest asset is YouTube, which is about 10% of its revenue. As part of the Mag 7, a breakup could substantially change not only the internet experience, but the balance of the market itself.